Not so sure, myself
This does worry me. I'm not so inclined to dismiss the claim out of hand and here's why:
A couple years ago Wayne LaPierre himself lamented at the NRA conference that there were only 85% of the hunters that there were ten years prevously. Not only does that mean that there are 15% fewer hunters out there, it also means that there is less revenue from hunting licenses going to support wildlife management programs. Are the bird watchers and hikers going to pony up the difference?
I read outdoor articles from non-hunters who say that they grew up hunting but what they found they really like is the outdoors and have started packing a digital camera instead, or golf clubs.
I read in the article that the NRA claims "3 million members." Wasn't that number 4 million a couple years ago? What's happening here?
I see the Bambi factor at work in every child I talk to and even with Scouting (another diminishing group, sadly) and programs geared to enlisting more women and young people in shooting sports, it just doesn't seem to become more than a passing curiosity for many of them after a time. They may know how to shoot but they're not interested in shooting.
I see the way society at large views the problems with the criminals and crazies and gangbangers who give guns a bad name and how that eats into the reputation of something I cherish and I deeply resent it, not to mention the knee-jerk "solutions" that immediately arise. What happens when the elected officials just won't protect gun rights anymore? You can't flex legislative muscle forever, especially as many states change demographics and become more urban and the rural interests (and this only one of many rural issues that need proponents) just get out numbered in the state houses. What happens then?
But what worries me the most was when I went to an NRA meet and greet function a couple months ago, not to mention the gun shows and local club meetings and I see a predominantly aging population of old white men who are not in particulary good health and are just not going to be around in ten years or so. Then what happens? Are their widows going to keep up the pressure on the legislators? Are their kids going take time out from their city jobs and SUV car camping trips to support the interests of the gun owner?
Excuse me for being pessimistic, but I think I have good reason to be.
I'm not asking these questions to inflame, but if we are really looking at this issue seriously, we have to ask the hard questions and find real answers.
Thanks for listening.