Theory about ammo shortage... with questions.

[UATKP]

Questions first. If any of you happen to work in a gun store...
Before the shortage happened:
How many boxes of any given ammo did you normally receive in a shipment?
Was it normally 2 or three boxes of scattered types?
or
Was it just a certain amount that you had previously ordered?
Are you under some contract that you receive up to a certain amount weekly from distributers or something like that?

I have been thinking that maybe it isn't the fact that fear has gripped the nation, and therefore citizens have bought up all the supplies of ammo; I think that the DHS, FEMA, and other federal government entities are pre-ordering such large orders, that maybe our "government" has caused the shortage of ammo... purposely.

The reasoning for my thoughts along this line: I live in a small town; we only have two local gun stores and one Walmart. Our gun stores and Walmart may get only 2 or 3 boxes of scattered types of ammunition in a shipment, and those shipments are few and far between.
And I really just don't know what to think.

 

[Mike C]

I think the ammo shortage will continue as long as the Government continues its push to destroy the constitution, and take away our rights. Reloading is one way to help yourself, although equipment is out of stock everywhere. All in all it gives me a good feeling abut most Americans, in that the majority still see the need to be ready to fight for their freedoms, especially at home.

Mike C

 

[trulyoffal]

It would not be out of the realm of reatlity. I think the "just in case" thing to do is encourage ammo manufacturers to either not sell to states and federal agencies until they back off this crazy gun control stuff and start addressing the real problem or apportion their sales in favor of the public first. Or tell the government to police their brass and learn to reload. If you are correct in your assumption, it won't be long before we run out of ammo and render all our weapons useless. Makes it a lot easier to be disarmed don't you think? If that is the governments considered agenda. So save your brass, it is priceless now. When you think about it, reloading supplies, powder, bullets, etc might make a good investment right now.
I am kind of glad that I am a bit of a hoarder.

I am like you I don't know what to think either. The longer this drags out the more I start making friends with "the smoking man".

 

[ORGO]

Ammo shortage

maybe our "government" has caused the shortage of ammo... purposely.

I have spoken directly to one ammo manufacturer. The problem is not the government. The problem is just the sheer physics of consumer demand. Ammo dealers are selling what used to be 12 months of inventory in one to two months. The manufacturer I talked to told me that they are having trouble getting enough raw materials. Think about it - there has been a sustained period of over two million new gun purchases a month. All those people are trying desperately to stock up on ammo. The ammo manufacturers are currently 4 to 6 months backordered on almost everything.

If you want to buy ammo, you can still get a lot of it online. Try ammoseek.com or gunbroker.com.

 

[vernsimpson]

I also talked to an ammo manufacturer and they are running around the clock to try to meet the demand. I used to rebuild their machines and know that most lines run at 110 per minute. Most do not realize how many operations there are to make one round.

ORGO is right, the main problem is people who are afraid that our "wonderful and caring" government will make it illegal to buy ammo or at least make everyone jump through hoops to buy ammo and weapons.

 

[Billy_B]

The Glock Reps were at one of our local gun shops this week and one of our local radio stations were giving away a Glock in a drawing while the reps were here. A friend of ours was in the market for a Walthers 380 so my wife and I went with her and signed up for the drawing while we were there. I couldn't believe how many people were in this shop. They sold no less than 6 hand guns while she was buying hers. When she attempted to buy some 380 shells she found that she was limited to only one box. I tried to buy some 38 amo or 9mm and they told me that they didn't have much and were only selling to those people that were buying guns. I called arrouind today in an attempt to locate some and in a town of 200,000 people I couldn't find anyone that had any for sale. One store said they would be getting some 38s in next week but couln't tell me anything on the 9s and when I asked about CCI 22 mini mag he just kinda laughed and said he had no 22s of any kind in the store and didn't know when they would get any in. My wife and I are going to the range this afternoon but we won't be shooting much!

 

[Deserteagle]

If the hoarders would stop screwing us over we wouldn't have this problem. I walked into a Gander Mountain just yesterday to see how things are looking in all this chaos and the first conversation I hear is a guy saying he only has 5000 rounds stored in his house and he needs more. People like this are why we cant find ammo, and why we cant have fun target shooting anymore. These people are going to stock up thousands of rounds in their houses because of fear, and then if something actually did happen, Im sure they would only get off 5 rounds before they die anyway. There is pretty much no reason to hoard that much ammo.

With this hoarding fear, these people who are dying to buy ammo are also screwing us all by raising the prices on ammo. 5.56 and .223 are now more than a dollar per round. They should be 30 cents a round. If people stopped paying that much and reduced the demand, businesses wouldnt be able to abuse us with prices like that. But people are buying into the fear and allowing businesses like cheaperthandirt to make huge profits off us.

Im sure we even have a lot of these hoarders on this forum as well.

Fear is a great way to make money off people.

 

[fstroupe]

As for Walmart, there has always been a 2-3 week turnaround time on ammo, and the system is set up to automatically order what they sell, called POS or Point-of-Sale. I'm not sure how the Regional Distribution Centers order their ammo, at the Grocery Distribution Centers there are buyers who order from individual vendors. If there is a shortage of a particular item, the distribution center(s) runs out, and orders from the stores build up. Once we get a shipment, unless there is enough to fill every store's order, we send partial shipments to each until we get enough to resupply the stores. It is a little different with groceries, as we ship to every store every day in our area, and I assume that the other 35 grocery DCs do the same.

If the stores run out and stay out, it is either that the DC can't get the product, the store is not carrying that particular product anymore, or the store's inventory is all screwed up and the system thinks that the store has the product onhand. The latter is a common occurrence, and if you are a Walmart shopper who like me goes crazy when the store is always out of your favorite product (especially when the Distribution Center is 1.5 miles away from the store and you personally know that there are pallets there of that particular product) that is often the reason.

As most stores don't have storage space for ammo other than the shelf they sell it from, it is still very possible that the inventory was off in the past. Much less possible now as not only are they out of everything, they all did inventory at the end of last month.

So your local Walmart has in the past typically received ammo in whatever quantity that they sold it in. There are no ranges here, no shooting clubs, etc.....just gun owners walking in to replenish what they shot at their favorite gravel pit, sand pit, in their back yard, etc. This store was seldom out of anything, except maybe 100 rnd boxes of 9mm and 45, occasionally 50 rnd boxes of the same, and the Federal 325 round bulk pack of .22s, all ammo that they sell the most of. When they were out it always took 2-3 weeks to restock the shelves. They were seldom out of .32 ACP, .380 ACP, .25 ACP, 38 Special, etc.

I mean, really, think about it. How often does the typical Walmart sell .32s? I don't even know anyone that owns a .32. How many 32s does the average ammo factory have to make? Then suddenly, everyone who owns a .32, even if they haven't shot it in years, buys all the .32s that their local Walmart has. Ditto the guys with .25s, 45 Long Colts, etc, etc. Every round of every kind is being bought up, from every Walmart, every D ick's, every Cabela's, every Bass Pro, and every mom & pop's gun store across the nation.

Right now they are getting what the distribution center gets. I happened to be walking through sporting goods the other day, the guy happened to be opening a box of ammo from the DC. There was six boxes of white Winchester 50 rnd 9mm and three boxes of white Winchester 50 rnd .45 ACP. (of course I bought all of the 9mms) A couple of weeks ago they got probably 50 boxes of .40 S&W. (they still have much of that so I assume there aren't a lot of .40 shooters here, or everyone has all they need....my grandson bought like 10 boxes for his new Glock)

They get it as the distribution center gets it.

At least to me, it makes sense that there is an ammo shortage without the government buying extra ammo to cause one. That's not to say it isn't happening....but I believe that there would now be a shortage regardless.

Ammo isn't the only thing that they have had trouble getting from their distribution center. The DC is always out of the new strawberry flavored Atkins bars. I have hinted that maybe the government has been buying all of them so that us low-carb lifestyle people wouldn't be able to enjoy them.

 

[fstroupe]

Questions first. If any of you happen to work in a gun store...
Before the shortage happened:
How many boxes of any given ammo did you normally receive in a shipment?
Was it normally 2 or three boxes of scattered types?
or
Was it just a certain amount that you had previously ordered?
Are you under some contract that you receive up to a certain amount weekly from distributers or something like that?

I have been thinking that maybe it isn't the fact that fear has gripped the nation, and therefore citizens have bought up all the supplies of ammo; I think that the DHS, FEMA, and other federal government entities are pre-ordering such large orders, that maybe our "government" has caused the shortage of ammo... purposely.

The reasoning for my thoughts along this line: I live in a small town; we only have two local gun stores and one Walmart. Our gun stores and Walmart may get only 2 or 3 boxes of scattered types of ammunition in a shipment, and those shipments are few and far between.
And I really just don't know what to think.

I guess that my question for you is: If your local stores only got two or three boxes in a shipment in the past, why would you think that they should be able to get more than that now?

I'm scared just like you and everyone else is. Though I work in Walmart Logistics, I don't work where they order ammo. My wife was in Walmart store management for years. So I know pretty much how the system works....how it is supposed to, and how it ends up working. As I said above, I would expect a shortage in the current situation regardless.

But having said all of this....the government buying up the ammo to cause an artificial shortage is very plausible to me. Hell....they do it all the time with various agricultural commodities, either by buying the commodity outright, or by paying farmers not to grow them.

I really would expect it of this administration, I KNOW THEY HATE GUNS AND THE PEOPLE THAT LOVE THEM!!!

 

[UATKP]

I have spoken directly to one ammo manufacturer. The problem is not the government. The problem is just the sheer physics of consumer demand. Ammo dealers are selling what used to be 12 months of inventory in one to two months. The manufacturer I talked to told me that they are having trouble getting enough raw materials. Think about it - there has been a sustained period of over two million new gun purchases a month. All those people are trying desperately to stock up on ammo. The ammo manufacturers are currently 4 to 6 months backordered on almost everything.

If you want to buy ammo, you can still get a lot of it online. Try ammoseek.com or gunbroker.com.

I haven't looked at it this way before. It does give me another way to look at it.

As far as ammoseek and gunbroker is concerned, I can't afford their prices. I'll just have to conserve what I have thus far.

 

[S&W645]

We bought in 1000 round cases before the crunch. Now we do good to get 400 to 500 at a time. We got in 1400 rounds of .22LR yesterday, it also was gone yesterday. We got in 2000 rounds of 9mm last week, half is gone already. We also got in 4000 rounds of 5.56X45 55 grain but were told that that was going to be it for 1 to 2 months as the mfg can't get the brass or primed brass. We got in 100 rounds of XM855 but don't expect to see anymore for months and it is bulk plastic bagged at $1.00 a round.

 

[mappow]

Supply-demand in a free market will ensure the lowest prices available. Supply and demand in a Gov't controlled market, especially with this administration will scare grandma to purchase more ammo. UNDERNEATH it all, ya think there are investors in this admin. that own stock in ammo? Investors that have contributed getting payback on there Cap Inv. JUZ SAYING......

 

[UATKP]

Quote by fstroupe: "I guess that my question for you is: If your local stores only got two or three boxes in a shipment in the past, why would you think that they should be able to get more than that now?"

That's all they get now; I have no idea what they got in the past. I go out nearly every night about the time that they unload the trucks, and have been doing that for about 3 weeks now, and haven't gotten to buy a box of 9mm yet. In all that time, I've gotten one box of .380 and a box of 5 shells of .410 000 buck... that's it. No .45 LC, no 9mm luger, no .22.

 

[Dfarcher]

Here is the deal....the ammo makers in the US were already working at full capacity before the elections and the most recent school shooting tragedy. It just took a little nudge to throw the supply and demand out of whack. Some started hording guns and ammo because of fear of pending legislation in Washington DC. Then a million oportunistic jerks started buying up every gun and bullet they could find to RESELL to those who were trying to stock up. That cycle is still going on and is the ONLY reason we still can't get ammo. My shop has sold more ammo in the last two months than in the previous two years. The goverment is not getting it, just a bunch of folks either trying to stock up or make a easy buck.

 

[S&W645]

Quote by fstroupe: "I guess that my question for you is: If your local stores only got two or three boxes in a shipment in the past, why would you think that they should be able to get more than that now?"

That's all they get now; I have no idea what they got in the past. I go out nearly every night about the time that they unload the trucks, and have been doing that for about 3 weeks now, and haven't gotten to buy a box of 9mm yet. In all that time, I've gotten one box of .380 and a box of 5 shells of .410 000 buck... that's it. No .45 LC, no 9mm luger, no .22.

The only one we've had problems getting was the .22LR. But what we sold it at before is what we are paying for it now.

 

[blarg]

the simple truth is we're doing this to ourselves. a few tens of thousands of people nationwide panic buying ammo and hoarding can buy up the entire output of what the ammo factories can produce... and since this isn't a real increase in demand ammo factories are reluctant to expand production because eventually the hoarders will stop buying and demand will go back to normal... maybe lower because those hoarders won't have to buy for a very long time and some might start selling off their stockpiles.


I've met people ay Walmart who camp out in the ammo section and wait for the ammo to go on the shelves... some of these people have told me that they have over 100000 rounds hoarded in several calibers and they're still buying. some are buying ANY handgun ammo on the shelf thinking they're going to sell it at 10x the price after it's banned even if they don't own guns that shoot it.

 

[BluesStringer]

I haven't even looked for a box of ammo since this all started, much less bought a single round. I've spent the last 20 years "hoarding" (what a ridiculous word to use!) what I needed as a hedge against inflation. I've also "hoarded" food and water, batteries and weather radios, flashlights and lanterns to put them in. I've "hoarded" thousands of dollars worth of any survival gear one can imagine long before we had a Marxist in the White House that wants to make independence and self-sufficiency the worst crimes in America. I've done it not because of fear of government, but because I've personally been made homeless twice, once in an earthquake that destroyed the home I grew up in, and once when I had a fire in my home that destroyed every single thing I owned that was inside the house. I don't buy any more insurance than the government mandates, but I am self-insured better than any company could ever provide for anyway.

Bottom line, someone's wish to buy ammo so they can "have fun target shooting" doesn't trump my right to buy as much of anything that I am legally allowed to own and can afford to buy a little at a time. The same communist-sounding poster said 5.56 x 45mm "should" cost 30¢ a round instead of a buck a round. Stupid non-planners pay 30¢ a round. My "hoard" averaged between 19¢ and 21¢ a round. I'm not out huntin' for rounds, and I ain't b!tchin' and moanin' about high prices. Only those who have lived their lives thinking that "it can't happen to me" are.

Blues

 

[tricolordad]

If the hoarders would stop screwing us over we wouldn't have this problem. I walked into a Gander Mountain just yesterday to see how things are looking in all this chaos and the first conversation I hear is a guy saying he only has 5000 rounds stored in his house and he needs more. People like this are why we cant find ammo, and why we cant have fun target shooting anymore. These people are going to stock up thousands of rounds in their houses because of fear, and then if something actually did happen, Im sure they would only get off 5 rounds before they die anyway. There is pretty much no reason to hoard that much ammo.

With this hoarding fear, these people who are dying to buy ammo are also screwing us all by raising the prices on ammo. 5.56 and .223 are now more than a dollar per round. They should be 30 cents a round. If people stopped paying that much and reduced the demand, businesses wouldnt be able to abuse us with prices like that. But people are buying into the fear and allowing businesses like cheaperthandirt to make huge profits off us.

Im sure we even have a lot of these hoarders on this forum as well.

Fear is a great way to make money off people.

Some of us were hoarding the 5.56 well before Obummer was reelected. I haven't bought any in over a year now though.

 

[S&W645]

Some of us were hoarding the 5.56 well before Obummer was reelected. I haven't bought any in over a year now though.

If I found some XM855 reasonable, I might buy it. But with 55gr XM193 on hand and 62 gr soft points also, why buy?

 

[mclureb]

If the hoarders would stop screwing us over we wouldn't have this problem. I walked into a Gander Mountain just yesterday to see how things are looking in all this chaos and the first conversation I hear is a guy saying he only has 5000 rounds stored in his house and he needs more. People like this are why we cant find ammo, and why we cant have fun target shooting anymore. These people are going to stock up thousands of rounds in their houses because of fear, and then if something actually did happen, Im sure they would only get off 5 rounds before they die anyway. There is pretty much no reason to hoard that much ammo.

With this hoarding fear, these people who are dying to buy ammo are also screwing us all by raising the prices on ammo. 5.56 and .223 are now more than a dollar per round. They should be 30 cents a round. If people stopped paying that much and reduced the demand, businesses wouldnt be able to abuse us with prices like that. But people are buying into the fear and allowing businesses like cheaperthandirt to make huge profits off us.

Im sure we even have a lot of these hoarders on this forum as well.

Fear is a great way to make money off people.

You're kidding right? How many rounds constitute hoarding? Maybe the guy at Gander Mountain has 10 different calibers, would you still consider him a hoarder? What if 3000 rounds were .22, what if he purchased the ammo before Sandy Hook would you still say he is causing the shortage.

Many folks have been reading the tea leaves since the 2008 election and have been stocking up just in case. I call that smart. If folks are buying .223 at a buck a round I don't consider that prudent but if you didn't have ammo for that new rifle then I guess you do what you have to do.