Something not mentioned here is the chance of injury from the gun itself (not from it firing). Think about all the crap you see on cops belts besides their gun. Double mag case, pepper spray, cuffs, flashlight, maybe a tazer etc. When we set up a belt we always kept the SOB either empty of gear or limited it to something less bulky (cuffs, glove pouch etc).
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The reasoning we were given was that you are more likely to end up in a physical altercation than a gunfight, and if you get knocked on your back there's a better chance of a spine injury. I know that this is different from how the average person will interact with the public, since we don't go looking for confrontation. If you ever watched "Cops" many times they are having a conversation with someone when it erupts with no warning into either a fight or an initial attack so the guy can flee. And it doesn't matter the size of either person.
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The principle is still the same though. If you get put on your butt, it could end up more than just embarrassing.