Ammunition Shortages - I mean really!!!

[SigVol]

All bovine scatology aside, what are the facts about supply recovery timeline?

Not interested in rumors or speculations - if anyone has facts please share them.

 

[Jes]

Uhhhh???

I don't know about the supply side whachamacallit, but I love the avatar! :biggrin:

Jes
UT Alum 2001 (GO VOLS!!)

Me no able to find shooty things for my bangy gun thing in any big shoppy places...:to_pick_ones_nose:

 

[abock33]

I know that the sporting goods store where I shop is re "stocked" every week. The problem is that they don't know what calibers they get until they open the packing slip. The guy said its always a guessing game.

 

[KimberRB]

My toy store seems to have most cal. most of the time but it is costing a bit more now a days.

 

[utimmer43]

All bovine scatology aside, what are the facts about supply recovery timeline?

Not interested in rumors or speculations - if anyone has facts please share them.

What facts are you looking for? Manufacturers have X capacity to produce, regardless of what it is they're producing. Suppliers are obligated to keep the military supplied first, the Feds second, civilian third. And whatever they do turn out to the civilian market gets swallowed up in just a few hours after it goes on the shelves. That is, except for the places where the prices are higher, as noted by KimberRB.

Being involved in two wars, combined with the Obama effect means we have a greater demand than we do supply.

 

[DarrellM5]

I talked to several manufacturers at the NRA meetings in Phoenix. They all said that they were cranking out ammo at max capacity, but they're not able to keep up with demand. They also said that the demand doesn't show any signs of letting up in the foreseeable future.

 

[SigVol]

What facts are you looking for? Manufacturers have X capacity to produce, regardless of what it is they're producing. Suppliers are obligated to keep the military supplied first, the Feds second, civilian third. And whatever they do turn out to the civilian market gets swallowed up in just a few hours after it goes on the shelves. That is, except for the places where the prices are higher, as noted by KimberRB.

Being involved in two wars, combined with the Obama effect means we have a greater demand than we do supply.

Facts, being the truth; which you have successfully captured only a few.

 

[thunderlounge]

I talked to several manufacturers at the NRA meetings in Phoenix. They all said that they were cranking out ammo at max capacity, but they're not able to keep up with demand. They also said that the demand doesn't show any signs of letting up in the foreseeable future.

Anyone want to start a new business? I've got a pretty good idea of a great money maker. :sarcastic:


A supplier recently relayed to me that the manufacturers go by "what they sold last year", increase it a little bit as per demand, then rip it out. Then they change dies, and do it all over again in the new caliber. This being for the less common rounds, and then they switch over and start cranking out the common stuff as much as possible (9mm, .45, etc).

Whether this holds any truth or not, I don't know. However, I'm surprised to have not yet read (which may be from a lack of seeing it) where manufacturers were expanding their production capabilities.

 

[FN1910]

The manufacturers are running at full capacity right now but the demand from the private sector is far exceeding the demand. One problem is that they run one caliber at a time and the demand from the military requires that other calibers such as .380 or .22 mag be put on hold. Why don't they expand? Does anyone really want to invest in expanding anything in this economy? They build a new plant to keep up with demand, all of a sudden the demand is fullfilled and then the supply exceeds the demand. The company is left with an idle plant. Anyone here olde enought to remember Cabbage Patch Dolls or even Duncan Yo-Yo's. Both companies built plants to supply the sudden demand and wound up bankrupt when the supply exceeded the demand.

Just hang in there.

 

[utimmer43]

Facts, being the truth; which you have successfully captured only a few.

What I've stated pretty much sums it up, unless you want me to go into the finer details of the factors that limit a manufacturers capacity, but that information isn't really hard to find on you own.
Or are you looking for some conspiracy theory about how foreign governments are buying up all our supply so that we can't defend ourselves when they decide to invade? That would be speculation, you asked for facts.

A supplier recently relayed to me that the manufacturers go by "what they sold last year", increase it a little bit as per demand, then rip it out. Then they change dies, and do it all over again in the new caliber. This being for the less common rounds, and then they switch over and start cranking out the common stuff as much as possible (9mm, .45, etc).

Whether this holds any truth or not, I don't know. However, I'm surprised to have not yet read (which may be from a lack of seeing it) where manufacturers were expanding their production capabilities.

It's absolutely true. Now, one may argue that they should have seen it coming even before the election, and stepped up to full capacity long before they did. Hindsight=20/20.

...Why don't they expand? Does anyone really want to invest in expanding anything in this economy? They build a new plant to keep up with demand, all of a sudden the demand is fullfilled and then the supply exceeds the demand. The company is left with an idle plant...

Exactly. Not to mention all the looming possible new restrictions on the manufacturers. The risk is way higher than the reward.

 

[thunderlounge]

Why don't they expand? Does anyone really want to invest in expanding anything in this economy? They build a new plant to keep up with demand, all of a sudden the demand is fullfilled and then the supply exceeds the demand. The company is left with an idle plant. Anyone here olde enought to remember Cabbage Patch Dolls or even Duncan Yo-Yo's. Both companies built plants to supply the sudden demand and wound up bankrupt when the supply exceeded the demand.

Well at least I found my "Let's start a business" remark funny. leasantry:

All joking aside though, both those companies went overboard. Plus the CP's were changed and went to the plastic faces as well.

I wouldn't think that a small, reasonable expansion would be completely out of the question entirely. By reasonable, I mean adding in a new line at an existing plant vice an entire new plant. Which some may or may not be considering or have underway.

 

[sixtracksfn]

I wouldn't think that a small, reasonable expansion would be completely out of the question entirely. By reasonable, I mean adding in a new line at an existing plant vice an entire new plant. Which some may or may not be considering or have underway.

In the long run that would help I think, but not anytime soon. Plant expansions take a lot of capital and time to do. I know we just rebuilt a boiler where I work. Took nearly a month to finish. While it was being rebuilt, we could not run one of our machines. Not running the machine means not making product, which means not making money. Now it was good for us cause it allowed it us to take some product off the market, which would help drive demand up. But with the expansion of the plants, I don't see it making much effect in the short term, it might actually cause there to be less ammunition than there is now. But that's just how I see it.

 

[thunderlounge]

In the long run that would help I think, but not anytime soon. Plant expansions take a lot of capital and time to do. I know we just rebuilt a boiler where I work. Took nearly a month to finish. While it was being rebuilt, we could not run one of our machines. Not running the machine means not making product, which means not making money. Now it was good for us cause it allowed it us to take some product off the market, which would help drive demand up. But with the expansion of the plants, I don't see it making much effect in the short term, it might actually cause there to be less ammunition than there is now. But that's just how I see it.

I agree, that is a very real possibility. Of course I'm not an ammo manufacturing expert either, and I'm sure anyone who manufacturers ammo has put these through the wringer 1000 times already.

It's interesting forum fodder for a nice discussion through. :smile:

Military supply isn't the issue, I would think, but it's the consumer demand that is. Whether or not that will decrease to previous levels I don't know, however it would appear that the consumer demand has increased from not only an addition of new shooters but also from the rest of us stocking up as well.

I've been on the "buy it if you find it" mode of operation for about 18 months or so now. I don't go overboard, but I'll buy a couple hundred if I find them. (Keyword there: "if")

Around here (mid-Missouri) it's pretty much your handgun calibers which are in short supply. I haven't really dug into other areas to see if they're similar. Rifle rounds are still in supply for the most part, as are shotgun rounds. They're a bit higher on average, but I don't know if that's from a weaker dollar, price increase anticipation, other factors or a combination thereof.

Looks like I finally need to get off my but and get some new dies, no matter how you slice it. leasantry: